Long Term Bet For 2011/2012 Season

England - Premier League

Manchester United to finish 4th or worse... 15.0 with Stan James

Last season in the Premier League, the three teams who had the most shots against them got relegated with Birmingham, West Ham and Blackpool conceding 563, 569 and 630 shots respectively. The team who has conceded the most amount of shots in the Premier League so far this season is none other than Manchester United, and with an average of 16.36 shots against them per game so far, only Blackpool (with an average of 16.58) ended up with a worse figure than this last season.

There are a variety of theories that could be used to try to explain why they have allowed their opponents to have so many shots against them, but all of the theories we've considered suggest they may have been fortunate so far to be second only to Manchester City in terms of league position, goal difference and goals scored.

Taking all of this into account, we think the 14/1 on offer from Stan James for Manchester United to finish outside the top 3 offers good value.


Stoke City to be relegated... 26.0 with Boyle Sports

Stoke have undoubtedly got a good enough squad to finish in the top half of the Premier League. However, so far at least, they seem to have been saving their best form for the Europa League. Their only two victories in the league (at home to Liverpool and away to West Brom) were narrow 1-0 victories that could perhaps be considered as fortunate, as in both they only managed a single shot on target, while their opponents managed 11 and 7 respectively. While they don't give teams too many chances, they have managed just 47 shots on target in their 11 league matches to date - the worst record in the league.

We still think Stoke are much more likekly to finish in the top half of the table than they are to get relegated, but we'd put their chances of getting relegated at not much lower than 10%, so odds of 26.0 represent good value to us.


England - Championship

Middlesbrough to win... 17.0 each-way with Stan James

Middlesbrough's form this season has been fairly steady. They have had a lot of draws, but in all 6 of these they've had more shots on target than their opponents, so a few of these could easily have been wins. In total they've managed 113 shots on target and have had just 68 shots on target against them, giving them the best "shots on target" difference in the Championship, and in our overall ratings they are a close second to Southampton.

Betting each-way on Middlesbrough to win the Championship splits your stake into two bets. Half of your stake goes on them winning outright at 16/1, and half goes on them finishing in the top 3 at 5.0. We feel that both of these bets represent good value.


England - League One

Tranmere Rovers to be promoted... 26.0 with Victor Chandler

Automatic promotion is highly unlikely for Tranmere, as they are already 9 points behind a very good Huddersfield team who are in second place. However, they are only 2 points off a play-off place, and out of the 5 teams between them and Huddersfield, only MK Dons come out better in our ratings.

Despite only winning 4 of their last 10 matches, Tranmere have had more shots than their opponents in every one of these, including having 8 shots on target and just 2 shots on target against them in a 1-1 draw away to current league leaders Charlton. If they turn a few more of their shots into goals, then we think they are a good bet to make a play-off place.

The 5.5 on offer for Tranmere to finish in the top 6 looks a good value bet, but we feel there is more value on offer at odds of 26.0 for them to be promoted.


Exeter City to be releagted... 3.2 with Coral

Exeter are currently on a good run with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 4 matches. However, they are still just 2 points above the relegation zone and their goal difference of -13 is the joint worst in the league. Only Yeovil are lower on our ratings and 2 of the 3 teams who were bottom of our ratings at this point last year (Bristol Rovers and Plymouth) ended up being relagated to League Two.

We'd put Exeter's chances of relegation at close to 50%, so the odds on offer of 3.2 represent very good value to us.


England - League Two

No bets

We do think there might be some value in the 7/1 that Victor Chandler are offering for Hereford to be relegated, but we don't think this is significant enough for us to highlight it as a tip.


England - Conference

No bets

Again, we have been unable to find any significant value, though we feel there may be slight value in an each way bet on York City to win the league at 6/1 with Bet365.


Scotland - Premier League

Dunfermline to finish bottom... 2.5 with Stan James

We can't see any value in betting on either Rangers or or Celtic to win the league. There's little difference between these teams on our ratings and the odds look accurate to us given the current lead that Rangers have. Things are complicated by the possibility of Rangers having points deducted in an up and coming tax avoidance case, but as we don't have enough information on this to be able to estimate the chance of this happening, we've decided not to bet on an SPL winner.

At the other end of the table, just three points separate all six teams in the bottom half, but according to our ratings, it's 10th place Dunfermline who are most likely to finish bottom.

So far, they have managed 3 wins, but all 3 have been relatively unconvincing with 1-0 scorelines in each and the 3 goals coming from a total of just 6 shots on target. In fact, in eachh of Dunfermline's 13 league matches, they have failed to have more shots on target than their opponents, and we think there is value on offer at 2.5 for them to finish bottom.


Spain - La Liga

Barcelona to win...1.9 with Blue Square

As in Scotland, it's a two horse race for the league title, but things are looking a bit more even here with Real Madrid 3 points clear at the top. However, Real Madrid have arguably had the easier run of fixtures so far and Barcelona are still top of our ratings. At best odds of 1.9, we think there is some value in this.

While not highlighted as a tip, we also think there is a bit of value in Santander to be relegated at 2.8. They are bottom of our ratings and have had the least number of shots on target (29 compared to the second worst total of 32) and the least number of overall shots (88 compared to the second worst total of 108).


Italy - Serie A

Juventus to win... 3.75 with UniBet

Juventus are the only unbeaten team in Serie A and although they are currently in 4th position, they have a game in hand which, if won, would see them go top. They have only conceded 24 shots on target, which is by far the lowest in the league.

They have already beaten both Milan clubs and if they can keep up their current form, we believe they have a very good chance of winning their first title since 2003.


Germany - Bundesliga

No bets

According to our ratings, Bayern Munich have been by far the best team in the Bundesliga this season, but this is mirrored in the actual league table and the best odds available for them to win the league (2/9) offer little value.

At the bottom of our performance ratings are Cologne. However, they are in 11th position and 6 points clear of the bottom three and they were also at the bottom of our ratings at this point last season and ended up finishing mid-table. Their tally of 20 goals scored in 11 matches has only been bettered by 4 teams who are all in the top 5, but these 20 goals have come from just 36 shots on target, which is easily the lowest number of shots on target managed by any team in this league, and if they continue to create so few chances, then their goals may dry up and there may be some value at 8.0 for them to be relegated.


France - Ligue 1

No bets

Thanks for coming here....

MedorianSport

Horse race result

What a start to new year, We only had 1 day loss so far in horse race selection for this year...Our Total Profit in just 5 days is +5.66 unit (As at yesterday, 6th, January 2011)......Below is the full detail of result so far:

JANUARY HORSE RACE SELECTION REPORT
1/1/2011
JANUARY HORSE RACE SELECTION REPORT
1/1/2011
Exeter 2:15; Salden Licht @ 3.5 Won
Point(s) profit for the day: + 1.5

2/1/2011
Ayr 2:25; Diklers Oscar @ 5.5 Won
Plumpton 3:45; Tocatchaprince @ 3.0 Lost
Point(s) profit for the day: + 1.6

3/1/2011
Wolverhampton 2:35; Apache Ridge @ 4.0 WON
Hereford 4:00; Hoare Abbey @ 5 Lost
Point(s) profit for the day: + 0.83

4/1/2011
Leicester 3:20; Three Chords @3.75 Won
Southwell 3:40; Finn’s Rainbow@ 2.37 Won
Point(s) profit for the day: + 2.48

5/1/2011
Kempton 18:05; Algris @ 3.25 Lost
Southwell 15:40; Knight Pass @ 1.73 Won
Sothwell 15:10; Timesawating @ 3.25 Place
Lingfield 14:55; Kidlat @ 3 Place
Point(s) profit for the day: -1.1

6/1/2011
Southwell 14:40; Power Presence @ 3.25 Won
Southwell 15:40; Nicholas Pocock@ 4.0 Lost
Huntingdon 15:10;Cheney Manor@5 Place
Point(s) profit for the day: +0.35

7/1/2011
Fontwell 15:00; Jordan @3.25 Place
Fontwell 15:30; Roi De Rose @ 4.0 Won


Wolverhampton 17:40; Billy Red @ 4.3 lost
Point(s) profit for the day: + 0.58

8/1/2011
Sandown 2:40; Minella Class @ 2.5 Won
Sandown 3:45; Zazamix @ 4.0 place
Linfield 3:40; Amwell Pinot @ 3.25 Lost
Point(s) profit for the day: -0.21

9/1/2011
Southwell 3:20; KARATE @ 5.5 Lost
Leopardstown 3:35; Riven Slaney @ 6 Lost
Point(s) profit for the day: -2.0

10/1/2011
Wolverhampton 2:35; Spirit of grace@ 5 Place
Tau nton 2:45; Definitely Lovely @ 4.5 Lost
Towcester 3:25; Buddy Holy @5.5 won
Tau nton 3:45; Sona Sasta @ 2.0 Won
Point(s) profit for the day: +2.2

Total point(s) so far for the month of January (as at January 11, 2011): + 6.23 points

I will continue to update the result here every 10 days...

For verification of the results you can check www.uk-racing-results.com

Thanks
Lawal Ahmed
Creator, Medoriansports
www.medoriansport.blogspot.com